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Details of Grant 

EPSRC Reference: GR/S18083/01
Title: CRANIUM: Climate change Risk Assessment: New Impact and Uncertainty Methods
Principal Investigator: Kilsby, Professor C
Other Investigators:
Researcher Co-Investigators:
Project Partners:
Department: Civil Engineering and Geosciences
Organisation: Newcastle University
Scheme: Standard Research (Pre-FEC)
Starts: 26 September 2003 Ends: 25 September 2006 Value (£): 118,198
EPSRC Research Topic Classifications:
Building Ops & Management Construction Ops & Management
Structural Engineering
EPSRC Industrial Sector Classifications:
Energy Technical Consultancy
Construction Transport Systems and Vehicles
Environment Water
Related Grants:
GR/S18052/02 GR/S18069/01 GR/S18076/01
Panel History:  
Summary on Grant Application Form
The aim of the proposed research is to develop new methodologies for analysing uncertainty and making robust risk-based decisions for infrastructure design and management in the face of climate change. It is structured around three tasks. Task 1 will analyse uncertainties in key climate variabl analysis of built environment, transport and utilities and provide means of communicating uncertainties to modellers and decision-makers. It will develop new Bayesian and extreme value methods for incorporating a range of uncertainties in climate scenarios. Task 2 will develop new methods assessing system response to uncertain climate forcing. It will demonstrate methods for projecting uncertainties through system models and evah numerical methods for reducing the computational expense of uncertainty analysis. Task 3 will address how, in the light of these insights, decisior making about operation of, or investment in, the system in question could be managed or modified to reflect potential climate change impacts and specifically the uncertainties surrounding them. It will review the decision contexts confronted by managers responsible for built environment, transport and utilities and evaluate the suitability of a range of decision-making techniques in these contexts. Task 3 will be the main integrating mechanis within the project and will involve the project's eight stakeholder organisations. Methodological developments in each of these three tasks will be conducted in the context of case examples.
Key Findings
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Summary
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Further Information:  
Organisation Website: http://www.ncl.ac.uk